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This study investigates how business cycles regimes can explain financial portfolio decisions across investors and countries, given a number of idiosyncratic characteristics. In particular, the empirical strategy studies the relationship between risky asset shares and linear and nonlinear business cycles. The empirical part employs data from household surveys in the U.K., France, Germany, Japan, the...
This paper uses investor-level data to examine jointly the tendency of investors to succumb to the disposition effect and the house money effect; two behavioral biases premised on seemingly contradictory responses to prior gains/losses. We document three novel findings. First, the two effects can contemporaneously coexist in a single stock market and the majority of investors (53.5%) simultaneously...
We examine the impact of accounting quality, used as a proxy for information risk, on the behavior of equity implied volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. Using US data during 1996–2010, we observe that lower (higher) accounting quality significantly relates to higher (lower) levels of implied volatility (IV) around announcements. Worse accounting quality is further associated with a...
We investigate whether changes in the US dollar exchange rates of 18 currencies help explain the movements in the price of crude oil by using a wavelet-based nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags model (W-NARDL). This model allows one to capture the short- and long-run nonlinearities while taking into account the potential of extreme movements and excluding the noise components of the underlying...
This paper develops a perfectly general non-linear Uncovered Interest Parity, UIP, framework with foreign exchange (fx) market inefficiency. The latter means that there is always some “unexploited profit” which tends to generate a negative value for Fama's beta coefficient. However, as ID decays over time, this tends to generate a positive value for beta. The sign of beta is uncertain. It is shown...
Accelerated seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) are now the most common form of SEO in the United States, Canada and Europe. Canadian accelerated SEOs do not feature competitive bidding for underwriting mandates. Using field study data from both issuers and underwriters, as well as secondary data, we investigate underwriter competition in this market. We find competition, but not on the basis of underwriting...
This paper seeks to consider the relationship between the sentiment of newswire messages and the volatility of returns in the gold futures market. In particular, answers are sought to two key questions: firstly, how is the volatility of returns in the gold futures market influenced by the sentiment of non-scheduled news events? Secondly, is this news–volatility relationship affected by the state of...
Using the split share structure reform in China as a natural experiment, we study how changes in controlling shareholder incentive affect the pay-for-performance sensitivity. The reform converts the shares owned by controlling shareholders from non-tradable to tradable shares. The removal of such market friction allows for a better alignment of interests between controlling and minority shareholders,...
This paper examines the impact of international soccer matches on the Turkish stock market using firm-level and sorted-portfolio data. Applying Edmans et al. (2007) estimation method, we found a significant negative loss effect. However, once using panel data analysis as well as modeling spatial and temporal effects explicitly, the sports-sentiment effect disappeared. The same conclusions could be...
In this paper we investigate how differently stock returns of oil producers and oil consumers are affected from oil price changes. We find that stock returns of oil producers are affected positively by oil price changes regardless of whether oil price is increasing or decreasing. For oil consumers, oil price changes do not affect all consumer sub-sectors and where it does, this effect is heterogeneous...
This paper analyzes whether risk shifting took place in the European Union’s banking sector in 2002–2009. We also identify the type of risk shifting, if any, in the sample. In addition, our method provides a way to determine which variables incentivize/disincentivize risk shifting. Our main findings suggest that banks shifted risk to non-depository creditors. As regards banking policy, the analysis...
We assess the co-movement between the sharia-compliant stocks and sukuk in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The wavelet squared coherency approach is applied to daily data covering GCC global, corporate and financial services sukuk indexes as well as GCC sharia stocks. The empirical evidence indicates a strong dependence between these sharia stock and sukuk indexes. The degree of co-movement...
We investigate whether US bank holding company fundamental characteristics are related to bank risk over a period that covers the recent 2007–09 financial crisis. We extend prior studies to consider bank equity risk exposure to market-wide default risk, the structured finance market, and the asset-backed money market in a variance decomposition. Four important results emerge: (1) the risk in bank...
Monetary shocks largely affect economic activity in Western Australia. In smaller proportion, those shocks generate contractions in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, while economic activity in Queensland is significantly less affected. Finally, we develop a new approach to uncover the determinants of the differential state/territory responses to monetary shocks. Our estimation validates...
We model 73.62 million London Stock Exchange (LSE) trades and show that the LSE's high rate of failure to open at the opening auction only relates to low volume stocks. Low volume stock traders avoid trading until the open; this seems connected to their evading the informed trading-dominated opening auction. For the largest volume stocks, the opening auction provides highly efficient opening prices,...
This study uses minute-by-minute data to analyze price discovery dynamics between the Nikkei 225 index in Japan and the E-mini S&P 500 index futures in the United States across their respective time zones. Specifically, we apply Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) and Hasbrouck's (1995) models to examine long-term price discovery in the markets and use a Granger-causality test to analyze the short-run...
This paper examines the impact of structural oil price shocks on the covariance of U.S. stock market return and stock market volatility. We construct from daily data on return and volatility the covariance of return and volatility at monthly frequency. The measures of daily volatility are realized-volatility at high frequency (normalized squared return), conditional-volatility recovered from a stochastic...
Using monthly foreign flows data from Madrid Stock Exchange, we analyze the interaction between foreigners’ trading and stock returns, both marketwide and on individual stocks. We show that global risk appetite has a significant role in driving marketwide foreign investor flows. Our data of foreigners’ trading in individual stocks, the first on a major European market, enables an out-of-sample assessment...
This paper outlines a framework for mapping the effects of Basel III increases in capital and liquidity requirements on cross-border bank lending to emerging market economies. In a traditional push and pull scheme, the effects of capital and liquidity ratios are disentangled through 6 specific push factors. Performing a GMM over the 1999–2010 period, we provide an assessment of the potential impact...
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